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Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction

Challenger Clay Buenos Aires challenger · R16 17:00

Predicted probability

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Bolivia

27.04%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

72.96%

Average Odds

4.40  /  1.16

Market probability

20.86%  /  79.14%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Pablo Varillas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1732 vs 1564), a higher Elo rating (1715 vs 1547) and more wins on clay courts (52 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1546.8 Elo 1714.6
1563.5 Elo (surface) 1732.1
115 Wins (Challenger) 224
115 Wins (surface) 221
7 Last 15 form 12
1 Head-to-head wins 1
1.024 Dominance ratio 0.934
423 Rank 196
29.0 Age 31.0
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-04.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

69.5%
56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

57.2%
69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.3%
53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%
27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%
49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.16
0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.5%
57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.4%
71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%
51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.1%
30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.3%
55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.18
0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22
0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

49.3%
69.0%

Break Points Converted %

27.3%
50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.7%
54.1%

Break Points Converted %

49.3%
43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco 1 – 1 Juan Pablo Varillas

Clay Buenos Aires challenger · 2026-09-23

R16

Juan Pablo Varillas #196

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco #423

4-6 7-5 6-4
3 Aces 5
5 Double Faults 0
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
36 First Serve Won 43
17 Second Serve Won 19
4 Break Points Saved 8
10 Break Points Faced 13
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.2 Average Odds 4.4
Clay Guayaquil CH · 2025-11-17

R16

Juan Pablo Varillas #327

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco #265

6-0 7-5
1 Aces 0
1 Double Faults 4
53 Service Points 60
30 First Serve In 34
19 First Serve Won 16
16 Second Serve Won 9
5 Break Points Saved 9
7 Break Points Faced 15
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Lima 2 CH · 2024-11-04

R32

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco #187

Juan Pablo Varillas #202

6-4 6-4
2 Aces 1
0 Double Faults 1
68 Service Points 61
55 First Serve In 37
35 First Serve Won 21
8 Second Serve Won 16
5 Break Points Saved 3
6 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco — Last 10

L W L L L L L W L W

Juan Pablo Varillas — Last 10

W W L W W L W W W W