ATP tennis predict — Moritz Kudernatsch vs Samuele Pieri

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Moritz Kudernatsch

Germany

17.87%

Samuele Pieri

Italy

82.13%

Average Odds

4.21 / 1.20

Market probability

22.18% / 77.82%

Why This Prediction?

Samuele Pieri is the favorite because he has better recent form (6 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0), more career match wins (12 vs 0) and more wins on clay courts (12 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1500 Elo 1410.8

1500 Elo (surface) 1419.0

0 Wins (Challenger) 12

0 Wins (surface) 12

0 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.983 Dominance ratio 0.983

1363 Rank 398

21.2 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Moritz Kudernatsch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Samuele Pieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moritz Kudernatsch Samuele Pieri

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

62.9%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

81.8%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

84.6%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.1%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

71.4%

41.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.00

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moritz Kudernatsch Samuele Pieri

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

0.0%

61.9%

Break Points Converted %

62.5%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Moritz Kudernatsch 0 – 0 Samuele Pieri

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-26

qualification - 1. round

Samuele Pieri #286

Moritz Kudernatsch #-

6-4 6-1

1 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 0

63 Service Points 35

35 First Serve In 22

22 First Serve Won 18

8 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.2

Moritz Kudernatsch vs Samuele Pieri — Prediction