ATP tennis predict — Moez Echargui vs Spencer Johnson

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

24.10%

Spencer Johnson

USA

75.90%

Average Odds

1.02 / 1.03

Market probability

50.24% / 49.76%

Why This Prediction?

Spencer Johnson is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1635 vs 1446), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1646 vs 1458) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1445.7 Elo 1635.3

1457.8 Elo (surface) 1645.9

91 Wins (Challenger) 10

42 Wins (surface) 10

4 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.956 Dominance ratio 0.855

194 Rank 524

33.6 Age 23.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Spencer Johnson

1st Serve In %

65.1%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

51.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.59

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

52.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Spencer Johnson

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Moez Echargui 0 – 0 Spencer Johnson

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Spencer Johnson #524

Moez Echargui #194

6-4 6-3

2 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 52

23 First Serve In 36

16 First Serve Won 30

18 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 1.0

Moez Echargui vs Spencer Johnson — Prediction