ATP tennis predict — Moez Echargui vs Michael Zheng

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 21:45

Predicted probability

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

15.26%

Michael Zheng

USA

84.74%

Average Odds

6.97 / 1.09

Market probability

13.52% / 86.48%

Why This Prediction?

Michael Zheng is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1724 vs 1439), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1639 vs 1448) and a stronger return game (42.3% vs 34.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1438.6 Elo 1724.0

1448.2 Elo (surface) 1639.2

14 Wins 13

7 Wins (surface) 8

5 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.742 Dominance ratio 0.929

194 Rank 113

33.6 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Michael Zheng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Michael Zheng

1st Serve In %

65.1%

54.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

77.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Michael Zheng

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

69.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

43.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Moez Echargui 0 – 0 Michael Zheng

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-12

qualification - 1. round

Michael Zheng #113

Moez Echargui #194

5-7 6-2 6-4

3 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 2

85 Service Points 95

42 First Serve In 59

27 First Serve Won 40

21 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 9

14 Winners 26

35 Unforced Errors 55

1.1 Average Odds 7.0

Moez Echargui vs Michael Zheng — Prediction