ATP tennis predict — Moez Echargui vs Lucas Poullain

Challenger Hard Cassis challenger · 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

27.33%

Lucas Poullain

France

72.67%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.11

Market probability

55.82% / 44.18%

Why This Prediction?

Lucas Poullain is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1698 vs 1483), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1664 vs 1473) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1482.7 Elo 1697.8

1472.6 Elo (surface) 1664.4

94 Wins (Challenger) 70

45 Wins (surface) 60

4 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.916 Dominance ratio 1.039

226 Rank 343

33.7 Age 30.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Lucas Poullain

1st Serve In %

65.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

63.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

58.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Lucas Poullain

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Moez Echargui 1 – 0 Lucas Poullain

Hard Cassis challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Moez Echargui #226

Lucas Poullain #343

6-4 6-2

6 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 3

50 Service Points 51

28 First Serve In 22

22 First Serve Won 11

14 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Hard Abidjan 2 CH · 2025-04-21

R32

Moez Echargui #478

Lucas Poullain #415

6-4 6-4

6 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 4

62 Service Points 66

39 First Serve In 37

31 First Serve Won 24

7 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Moez Echargui vs Lucas Poullain — Prediction