ATP tennis predict — Moez Echargui vs Luca Potenza

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · qualification - round of 16 15:00

Predicted probability

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

53.20%

Luca Potenza

Italy

46.80%

Average Odds

1.25 / 2.75

Market probability

68.75% / 31.25%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1651.3 Elo 1572.4

1620.7 Elo (surface) 1581.3

96 Wins (Challenger) 56

47 Wins (surface) 33

5 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.989 Dominance ratio 0.962

215 Rank 485

33.7 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Luca Potenza

1st Serve In %

65.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Luca Potenza

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Moez Echargui 0 – 0 Luca Potenza

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-20

qualification - 1. round

Moez Echargui #378

Luca Potenza #538

6-7 6-4 6-3

15 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

46 First Serve Won 42

21 Second Serve Won 19

5 Break Points Saved 9

7 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Moez Echargui vs Luca Potenza — Prediction