ATP tennis predict — Moez Echargui vs Karl Poling

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

74.15%

Karl Poling

USA

25.85%

Average Odds

1.29 / 3.31

Market probability

71.96% / 28.04%

Why This Prediction?

Moez Echargui is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1662 vs 1496), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1637 vs 1473) and more wins on hard courts (7 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1662.0 Elo 1495.9

1636.9 Elo (surface) 1472.6

97 Wins (Challenger) 34

48 Wins (surface) 24

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.989 Dominance ratio 0.929

378 Rank 460

33.7 Age 27.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Karl Poling

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Karl Poling

1st Serve In %

65.1%

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

19.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

32.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Karl Poling

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

57.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Moez Echargui 0 – 0 Karl Poling

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Moez Echargui #378

Karl Poling #460

6-4 7-6

4 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

34 First Serve Won 37

20 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Moez Echargui vs Karl Poling — Prediction