ATP tennis predict — Moez Echargui vs Jack Pinnington Jones

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

25.07%

Jack Pinnington Jones

Great Britain

74.93%

Average Odds

2.54 / 1.48

Market probability

36.82% / 63.18%

Why This Prediction?

Jack Pinnington Jones is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1651 vs 1491), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1564 vs 1487) and a stronger return game (37.3% vs 33.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1490.5 Elo 1651.4

1487.1 Elo (surface) 1563.7

94 Wins (Challenger) 53

45 Wins (surface) 35

4 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.861 Dominance ratio 0.851

226 Rank 165

33.6 Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jack Pinnington Jones

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Jack Pinnington Jones

1st Serve In %

65.1%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

54.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Jack Pinnington Jones

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

40.6%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Moez Echargui 0 – 0 Jack Pinnington Jones

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Jack Pinnington Jones #165

Moez Echargui #226

2-6 6-4 6-4

3 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 8

79 Service Points 105

52 First Serve In 59

36 First Serve Won 34

10 Second Serve Won 25

6 Break Points Saved 9

11 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Moez Echargui vs Jack Pinnington Jones — Prediction