ATP tennis predict — Moez Echargui vs Damir Dzumhur

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

38.75%

Damir Dzumhur

Bosnia and Herzeg.

61.25%

Average Odds

2.68 / 1.39

Market probability

34.15% / 65.85%

Why This Prediction?

Damir Dzumhur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1782 vs 1654), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1706 vs 1628) and a stronger return game (42.3% vs 33.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1654.1 Elo 1782.1

1628.2 Elo (surface) 1705.8

98 Wins (Challenger) 239

49 Wins (surface) 71

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.989 Dominance ratio 0.951

378 Rank 100

33.7 Age 34.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Damir Dzumhur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Damir Dzumhur

1st Serve In %

65.1%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

60.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Damir Dzumhur

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

50.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Moez Echargui 0 – 1 Damir Dzumhur

Clay Sibiu CH · 2023-09-18

R16

Damir Dzumhur #160

Moez Echargui #302

6-4 6-1

0 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

52 Service Points 62

38 First Serve In 33

26 First Serve Won 20

8 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Moez Echargui vs Damir Dzumhur — Prediction