ATP tennis predict — Moez Echargui vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · R16 02:40

Predicted probability

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

17.65%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

82.35%

Average Odds

3.03 / 1.35

Market probability

30.82% / 69.18%

Why This Prediction?

Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1781 vs 1458), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1619 vs 1471) and a stronger return game (47.4% vs 34.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1458.3 Elo 1781.1

1471.0 Elo (surface) 1619.0

92 Wins (Challenger) 196

43 Wins (surface) 12

4 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.913 Dominance ratio 1.337

197 Rank 76

33.6 Age 27.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Moez Echargui

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Camilo Ugo Carabelli

1st Serve In %

65.1%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.4%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Moez Echargui Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Moez Echargui 0 – 0 Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-21

R16

Moez Echargui #197

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #76

6-2 5-0

0 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 2

44 Service Points 46

27 First Serve In 27

11 First Serve Won 19

4 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.0 Average Odds 1.4

Moez Echargui vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Prediction