ATP tennis predict — Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Koki Matsuda

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · R16 07:15

Predicted probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Malaysia

44.65%

Koki Matsuda

Japan

55.35%

Average Odds

1.79 / 1.93

Market probability

51.88% / 48.12%

Why This Prediction?

Koki Matsuda is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (67.0% vs 53.8% of service points won), a higher Elo rating (1579 vs 1535) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1583 vs 1565).

Player Comparison

1535.3 Elo 1578.6

1564.7 Elo (surface) 1582.8

32 Wins (Challenger) 23

32 Wins (surface) 23

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.792 Dominance ratio 1.165

551 Rank 483

22.1 Age 25.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-07-07.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Koki Matsuda

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

70.1%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Koki Matsuda

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

68.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.6%

26.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong 0 – 0 Koki Matsuda

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #551

Koki Matsuda #483

6-3 6-2

4 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 61

37 First Serve In 42

30 First Serve Won 23

10 Second Serve Won 8

5 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Koki Matsuda — Prediction