ATP tennis predict — Mitchell Krueger vs Keegan Smith

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · 1. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Mitchell Krueger

USA

43.76%

Keegan Smith

USA

56.24%

Average Odds

2.43 / 1.50

Market probability

38.17% / 61.83%

Why This Prediction?

Keegan Smith is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (70.9% vs 58.7% of service points won), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1623 vs 1594) and a higher Elo rating (1653 vs 1608).

Player Comparison

1608.2 Elo 1653.3

1593.6 Elo (surface) 1623.3

224 Wins (Challenger) 105

173 Wins (surface) 95

5 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.026 Dominance ratio 0.730

412 Rank 192

32.7 Age 28.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mitchell Krueger

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mitchell Krueger Keegan Smith

1st Serve In %

66.9%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

61.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.0%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.8%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.1%

20.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

38.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mitchell Krueger Keegan Smith

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

68.4%

Break Points Converted %

34.7%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.8%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

29.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mitchell Krueger 0 – 1 Keegan Smith

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Mitchell Krueger #412

Keegan Smith #192

7-6 6-7 6-4

5 Aces 17

5 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

52 First Serve Won 47

21 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Cary CH · 2022-09-12

R32

Keegan Smith #356

Mitchell Krueger #178

6-3 7-6(2)

6 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 7

81 Service Points 67

51 First Serve In 40

37 First Serve Won 28

17 Second Serve Won 12

10 Break Points Saved 2

12 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mitchell Krueger vs Keegan Smith — Prediction