ATP tennis predict — Mirza Basic vs S Mert Ozdemir

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Mirza Basic

Bosnia and Herzeg.

90.97%

S Mert Ozdemir

Turkey

9.03%

Average Odds

1.05 / 9.44

Market probability

89.99% / 10.01%

Why This Prediction?

Mirza Basic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1570 vs 1267), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1606 vs 1269) and fewer double faults per game (0.06 vs 0.34).

Player Comparison

1570.4 Elo 1266.7

1606.0 Elo (surface) 1269.0

214 Wins (Challenger) 1

150 Wins (surface) 1

7 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.961 Dominance ratio 0.773

612 Rank 1788

35.0 Age 26.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mirza Basic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

S Mert Ozdemir

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mirza Basic S Mert Ozdemir

1st Serve In %

60.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

76.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.38

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

58.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

42.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.63

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mirza Basic S Mert Ozdemir

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.8%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.2%

41.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mirza Basic 0 – 0 S Mert Ozdemir

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-26

qualification - 1. round

Mirza Basic #601

S Mert Ozdemir #-

6-3 6-1

5 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 4

43 Service Points 54

27 First Serve In 29

20 First Serve Won 17

13 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 9.4

Mirza Basic vs S Mert Ozdemir — Prediction