ATP tennis predict — Miomir Kecmanovic vs Denis Shapovalov

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Miomir Kecmanovic

Serbia

46.20%

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

53.80%

Average Odds

2.12 / 1.73

Market probability

44.94% / 55.06%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1748.3 Elo 1737.9

1761.8 Elo (surface) 1738.7

212 Wins 260

138 Wins (surface) 196

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 5

0.957 Dominance ratio 1.019

64 Rank 47

27.0 Age 27.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Miomir Kecmanovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miomir Kecmanovic Denis Shapovalov

1st Serve In %

58.1%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.1%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.6%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.8%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.7%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miomir Kecmanovic Denis Shapovalov

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

59.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Miomir Kecmanovic 0 – 5 Denis Shapovalov

Hard US Open · 2026-08-30

1. round

Denis Shapovalov #48

Miomir Kecmanovic #64

6-4 4-6 6-4 6-1

3 Aces 19

2 Double Faults 11

107 Service Points 103

62 First Serve In 53

38 First Serve Won 45

25 Second Serve Won 25

8 Break Points Saved 3

14 Break Points Faced 6

23 Winners 64

21 Unforced Errors 31

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Hard Dallas · 2025-02-03

R32

Denis Shapovalov #54

Miomir Kecmanovic #55

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3

20 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 4

98 Service Points 93

59 First Serve In 64

52 First Serve Won 47

19 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Washington · 2024-07-29

R16

Denis Shapovalov #139

Miomir Kecmanovic #51

4-6 6-4 6-2

8 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 0

77 Service Points 78

48 First Serve In 50

39 First Serve Won 32

15 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Acapulco · 2023-02-27

R32

Denis Shapovalov #30

Miomir Kecmanovic #31

6-7(4) 6-0 7-5

8 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 4

89 Service Points 92

48 First Serve In 59

39 First Serve Won 36

18 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Tokyo · 2019-09-30

R32

Denis Shapovalov #32

Miomir Kecmanovic #51

6-4 6-4

16 Aces 2

7 Double Faults 1

74 Service Points 61

43 First Serve In 38

36 First Serve Won 27

15 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Winston-Salem · 2019-08-19

R16

Denis Shapovalov #38

Miomir Kecmanovic #49

6-2 6-3

8 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 4

49 Service Points 70

25 First Serve In 42

20 First Serve Won 22

13 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 11

6 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Denis Shapovalov — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Miomir Kecmanovic — Last 10

Denis Shapovalov — Last 10