ATP tennis predict — Mili Poljicak vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

59.70%

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

40.30%

Average Odds

2.37 / 1.54

Market probability

39.39% / 60.61%

Why This Prediction?

Mili Poljicak is the favorite because he has fewer double faults per game (0.11 vs 0.28) and a stronger serve (65.4% vs 61.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1638.6 Elo 1661.5

1658.3 Elo (surface) 1656.1

48 Wins (Challenger) 114

46 Wins (surface) 54

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.119 Dominance ratio 0.893

352 Rank 133

22.0 Age 34.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mili Poljicak

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mili Poljicak Nikoloz Basilashvili

1st Serve In %

53.8%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

51.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.1%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.53

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mili Poljicak Nikoloz Basilashvili

Break Points Saved %

65.2%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

27.6%

40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mili Poljicak 0 – 0 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-29

R16

Mili Poljicak #352

Nikoloz Basilashvili #133

6-7 6-3 6-4

10 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 10

97 Service Points 112

52 First Serve In 48

33 First Serve Won 30

28 Second Serve Won 31

3 Break Points Saved 10

6 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Mili Poljicak vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Prediction