ATP tennis predict — Mili Poljicak vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

61.42%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

38.58%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.15

Market probability

56.58% / 43.42%

Why This Prediction?

Mili Poljicak is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (38.6% vs 37.3% of return points won), a stronger serve (68.9% vs 61.0% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1696 vs 1687).

Player Comparison

1677.5 Elo 1666.9

1695.7 Elo (surface) 1686.5

50 Wins (Challenger) 217

48 Wins (surface) 214

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.240 Dominance ratio 0.955

352 Rank 274

22.0 Age 30.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mili Poljicak

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mili Poljicak Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

53.8%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.1%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mili Poljicak Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

65.2%

69.0%

Break Points Converted %

27.6%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mili Poljicak 0 – 0 Juan Pablo Varillas

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-08-01

SF

Mili Poljicak #352

Juan Pablo Varillas #274

7-5 6-4

5 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 0

56 Service Points 87

29 First Serve In 50

21 First Serve Won 32

17 Second Serve Won 16

0 Break Points Saved 9

2 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Mili Poljicak vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction