ATP tennis predict — Mili Poljicak vs Jozef Kovalik

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

45.20%

Jozef Kovalik

Slovakia

54.80%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.32

Market probability

59.95% / 40.05%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1592.5 Elo 1663.0

1610 Elo (surface) 1671.8

46 Wins (Challenger) 237

44 Wins (surface) 218

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.064 Dominance ratio 1.133

243 Rank -

22.0 Age 33.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mili Poljicak

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Jozef Kovalik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mili Poljicak Jozef Kovalik

1st Serve In %

53.8%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

55.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.1%

54.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mili Poljicak Jozef Kovalik

Break Points Saved %

65.2%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

27.6%

27.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

51.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

48.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mili Poljicak 0 – 0 Jozef Kovalik

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-27

qualification - round of 16

Mili Poljicak #352

Jozef Kovalik #884

7-6 6-3

10 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 3

79 Service Points 81

47 First Serve In 54

42 First Serve Won 38

15 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Mili Poljicak vs Jozef Kovalik — Prediction