ATP tennis predict — Mili Poljicak vs Henrique Rocha

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · R16 14:00

Predicted probability

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

21.78%

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

78.22%

Average Odds

3.68 / 1.25

Market probability

25.35% / 74.65%

Why This Prediction?

Henrique Rocha is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1708 vs 1457), a higher Elo rating (1788 vs 1695) and more wins on hard courts (23 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1694.7 Elo 1787.6

1457.2 Elo (surface) 1707.5

52 Wins (Challenger) 84

3 Wins (surface) 23

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.074 Dominance ratio 1.186

293 Rank 127

22.2 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mili Poljicak

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mili Poljicak Henrique Rocha

1st Serve In %

53.8%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

59.0%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.5%

38.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mili Poljicak Henrique Rocha

Break Points Saved %

65.2%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

27.6%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

59.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mili Poljicak and Henrique Rocha have never played each other.

Mili Poljicak vs Henrique Rocha — Prediction