ATP tennis predict — Mili Poljicak vs Francesco Maestrelli

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

38.27%

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

61.73%

Average Odds

2.33 / 1.54

Market probability

39.79% / 60.21%

Why This Prediction?

Francesco Maestrelli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1678 vs 1476), more wins on hard courts (56 vs 4) and more career match wins (136 vs 53).

Player Comparison

1676.4 Elo 1637.0

1475.7 Elo (surface) 1677.7

53 Wins (Challenger) 136

4 Wins (surface) 56

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.074 Dominance ratio 1.080

286 Rank 171

22.2 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mili Poljicak

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mili Poljicak Francesco Maestrelli

1st Serve In %

53.8%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

55.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

77.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.7%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

34.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mili Poljicak Francesco Maestrelli

Break Points Saved %

65.2%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

27.6%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.1%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

38.9%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mili Poljicak and Francesco Maestrelli have never played each other.

Mili Poljicak vs Francesco Maestrelli — Prediction