ATP tennis predict — Mikael Arseneault vs Toby Samuel

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Mikael Arseneault

Canada

34.44%

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

65.56%

Average Odds

9.15 / 1.05

Market probability

10.29% / 89.71%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1810 vs 1554), a higher Elo rating (1649 vs 1541) and more career match wins (41 vs 6).

Player Comparison

1540.9 Elo 1648.8

1553.9 Elo (surface) 1809.9

6 Wins (Challenger) 41

6 Wins (surface) 36

6 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.931 Dominance ratio 1.025

1081 Rank 127

19.6 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mikael Arseneault

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mikael Arseneault Toby Samuel

1st Serve In %

—

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

57.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.8%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mikael Arseneault Toby Samuel

Break Points Saved %

—

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mikael Arseneault 0 – 0 Toby Samuel

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Toby Samuel #127

Mikael Arseneault #1081

6-2 6-0

1 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 1

40 Service Points 36

23 First Serve In 24

11 First Serve Won 22

6 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 9.2

Mikael Arseneault vs Toby Samuel — Prediction