ATP tennis predict — Mikael Arseneault vs Pavle Marinkov

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Mikael Arseneault

Canada

34.70%

Pavle Marinkov

Australia

65.30%

Average Odds

2.55 / 1.37

Market probability

34.95% / 65.05%

Why This Prediction?

Pavle Marinkov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1472 vs 1439), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1481 vs 1449) and a stronger serve (64.9% vs 58.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1439.3 Elo 1471.6

1449.2 Elo (surface) 1480.9

4 Wins (Challenger) 19

4 Wins (surface) 19

4 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.916 Dominance ratio 1.028

1190 Rank 535

19.6 Age 20.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mikael Arseneault

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Pavle Marinkov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mikael Arseneault Pavle Marinkov

1st Serve In %

—

48.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

18.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.8%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

77.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mikael Arseneault Pavle Marinkov

Break Points Saved %

—

47.1%

Break Points Converted %

—

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

70.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

36.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mikael Arseneault 0 – 0 Pavle Marinkov

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-19

qualification - 1. round

Mikael Arseneault #1081

Pavle Marinkov #527

6-3 6-4

4 Aces 6

0 Double Faults 5

54 Service Points 66

37 First Serve In 36

29 First Serve Won 28

13 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.4

Mikael Arseneault vs Pavle Marinkov — Prediction