ATP tennis predict — Mikael Arseneault vs James Trotter

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Mikael Arseneault

Canada

43.25%

James Trotter

Japan

56.75%

Average Odds

4.35 / 1.16

Market probability

21.05% / 78.95%

Why This Prediction?

James Trotter is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (67.2% vs 60.9% of service points won), more wins on hard courts (89 vs 6) and more career match wins (94 vs 6).

Player Comparison

1512.8 Elo 1528.5

1538.9 Elo (surface) 1549.8

6 Wins (Challenger) 94

6 Wins (surface) 89

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.015 Dominance ratio 1.298

1081 Rank 457

19.6 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mikael Arseneault

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

James Trotter

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mikael Arseneault James Trotter

1st Serve In %

—

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

41.6%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.8%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

42.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mikael Arseneault James Trotter

Break Points Saved %

—

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

26.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mikael Arseneault 0 – 0 James Trotter

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-28

qualification - 1. round

James Trotter #442

Mikael Arseneault #1006

6-7 6-3 6-3

1 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 3

105 Service Points 96

55 First Serve In 56

35 First Serve Won 42

32 Second Serve Won 28

7 Break Points Saved 7

10 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Mikael Arseneault vs James Trotter — Prediction