ATP tennis predict — Mika Petkovic vs Thiago Monteiro

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Mika Petkovic

Germany

24.86%

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

75.14%

Average Odds

3.45 / 1.28

Market probability

27.06% / 72.94%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1775 vs 1502), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1777 vs 1480) and more wins on clay courts (244 vs 12).

Player Comparison

1502.0 Elo 1775.2

1480.3 Elo (surface) 1777.1

14 Wins (Challenger) 258

12 Wins (surface) 244

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.015 Dominance ratio 1.143

458 Rank 225

19.7 Age 32.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mika Petkovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–9L · 18.2%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mika Petkovic Thiago Monteiro

1st Serve In %

58.4%

66.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.2%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.1%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.3%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.2%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.9%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.3%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mika Petkovic Thiago Monteiro

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.6%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

52.2%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mika Petkovic 0 – 1 Thiago Monteiro

Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Mika Petkovic #458

Thiago Monteiro #225

4-6 6-4 6-1

5 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

34 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.5 Average Odds 1.3

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-02

R16

Thiago Monteiro #280

Mika Petkovic #432

6-1 4-6 6-2

0 Aces 5

7 Double Faults 3

72 Service Points 67

35 First Serve In 37

20 First Serve Won 28

16 Second Serve Won 14

5 Break Points Saved 3

12 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Mika Petkovic vs Thiago Monteiro — Prediction