ATP tennis predict — Mika Petkovic vs Thiago Monteiro

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · R16 15:30

Predicted probability

Mika Petkovic

Germany

29.84%

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

70.16%

Average Odds

3.31 / 1.30

Market probability

28.20% / 71.80%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1673 vs 1531), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1703 vs 1514) and more wins on clay courts (238 vs 11).

Player Comparison

1531.3 Elo 1673.2

1514.2 Elo (surface) 1703.4

13 Wins (Challenger) 252

11 Wins (surface) 238

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.943 Dominance ratio 1.405

432 Rank 280

19.7 Age 32.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mika Petkovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–9L · 18.2%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mika Petkovic Thiago Monteiro

1st Serve In %

58.4%

66.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.2%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.1%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.3%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.2%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.9%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.3%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mika Petkovic Thiago Monteiro

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.6%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

52.2%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mika Petkovic 0 – 0 Thiago Monteiro

Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Mika Petkovic #458

Thiago Monteiro #225

4-6 6-4 6-1

5 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

34 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.5 Average Odds 1.3

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-02

R16

Thiago Monteiro #280

Mika Petkovic #432

6-1 4-6 6-2

0 Aces 5

7 Double Faults 3

72 Service Points 67

35 First Serve In 37

20 First Serve Won 28

16 Second Serve Won 14

5 Break Points Saved 3

12 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Mika Petkovic vs Thiago Monteiro — Prediction