ATP tennis predict — Mika Petkovic vs Niels Mcdonald

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Mika Petkovic

Germany

63.21%

Niels Mcdonald

Germany

36.79%

Average Odds

2.24 / 1.59

Market probability

41.51% / 58.49%

Why This Prediction?

Mika Petkovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1559 vs 1506), more wins on clay courts (10 vs 7) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1541 vs 1535).

Player Comparison

1558.7 Elo 1505.8

1541.3 Elo (surface) 1535.2

12 Wins (Challenger) 7

10 Wins (surface) 7

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.867 Dominance ratio 1.027

429 Rank 526

19.6 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mika Petkovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–9L · 18.2%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Niels Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mika Petkovic Niels Mcdonald

1st Serve In %

58.4%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.2%

59.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.1%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.3%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.2%

64.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

46.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.9%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.3%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mika Petkovic Niels Mcdonald

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.6%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

52.2%

49.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mika Petkovic 0 – 0 Niels Mcdonald

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-10

1. round

Niels Mcdonald #526

Mika Petkovic #429

0-6 6-4 6-3

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Mika Petkovic vs Niels Mcdonald — Prediction