ATP tennis predict — Mika Petkovic vs Federico Arnaboldi

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Mika Petkovic

Germany

61.68%

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

38.32%

Average Odds

1.58 / 2.27

Market probability

58.96% / 41.04%

Why This Prediction?

Mika Petkovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1530 vs 1453), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1519 vs 1468) and better recent form (7 wins in his last 15 matches vs 6).

Player Comparison

1529.7 Elo 1453.4

1518.8 Elo (surface) 1467.6

14 Wins (Challenger) 69

12 Wins (surface) 57

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.076 Dominance ratio 0.978

432 Rank 521

19.7 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mika Petkovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–9L · 18.2%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Federico Arnaboldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mika Petkovic Federico Arnaboldi

1st Serve In %

58.4%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.2%

62.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.1%

29.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

41.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.3%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.2%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.9%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.3%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mika Petkovic Federico Arnaboldi

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.6%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

52.2%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mika Petkovic 0 – 0 Federico Arnaboldi

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-07

qualification - round of 16

Federico Arnaboldi #521

Mika Petkovic #432

6-3 3-6 7-6

4 Aces 12

4 Double Faults 8

98 Service Points 102

62 First Serve In 56

41 First Serve Won 46

20 Second Serve Won 22

6 Break Points Saved 11

9 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Mika Petkovic vs Federico Arnaboldi — Prediction