ATP tennis predict — Mika Petkovic vs Andrea Pellegrino

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · 1. round 14:00

Predicted probability

Mika Petkovic

Germany

28.28%

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

71.72%

Average Odds

3.20 / 1.32

Market probability

29.20% / 70.80%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Pellegrino is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1687 vs 1493), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1722 vs 1482) and more wins on clay courts (192 vs 12).

Player Comparison

1492.6 Elo 1687.3

1482.0 Elo (surface) 1722.3

14 Wins (Challenger) 213

12 Wins (surface) 192

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.044 Dominance ratio 0.934

432 Rank 129

19.7 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mika Petkovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–9L · 18.2%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Andrea Pellegrino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mika Petkovic Andrea Pellegrino

1st Serve In %

58.4%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.2%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.1%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.3%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.2%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

60.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.9%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.3%

39.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mika Petkovic Andrea Pellegrino

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.6%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

52.2%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mika Petkovic 0 – 0 Andrea Pellegrino

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Andrea Pellegrino #129

Mika Petkovic #432

7-6 6-4

2 Aces 10

0 Double Faults 1

68 Service Points 82

36 First Serve In 46

26 First Serve Won 36

18 Second Serve Won 20

0 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Mika Petkovic vs Andrea Pellegrino — Prediction