ATP tennis predict — Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios Vera

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · R16 15:00

Predicted probability

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

31.99%

Tomas Barrios Vera

Chile

68.01%

Average Odds

3.37 / 1.24

Market probability

26.90% / 73.10%

Why This Prediction?

Tomas Barrios Vera is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1767 vs 1550), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1745 vs 1569) and more wins on clay courts (209 vs 39).

Player Comparison

1549.6 Elo 1766.6

1568.7 Elo (surface) 1745.3

59 Wins (Challenger) 253

39 Wins (surface) 209

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.961 Dominance ratio 1.064

- Rank 132

20.3 Age 28.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Miguel Tobon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Tomas Barrios Vera

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Tomas Barrios Vera

1st Serve In %

53.9%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

41.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.6%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

63.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

32.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Tomas Barrios Vera

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

60.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Miguel Tobon and Tomas Barrios Vera have never played each other.

Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios Vera — Prediction