ATP tennis predict — Miguel Tobon vs Thiago Cigarran

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

61.84%

Thiago Cigarran

Argentina

38.16%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.65

Market probability

74.49% / 25.51%

Why This Prediction?

Miguel Tobon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1554 vs 1504), more wins on clay courts (18 vs 0) and a higher Elo rating (1536 vs 1493).

Player Comparison

1536.4 Elo 1492.7

1553.6 Elo (surface) 1503.7

58 Wins (Challenger) 19

38 Wins (surface) 19

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.961 Dominance ratio 1.033

- Rank 622

20.3 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Miguel Tobon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Thiago Cigarran

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Thiago Cigarran

1st Serve In %

53.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.37

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.2%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.8%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Thiago Cigarran

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

55.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Miguel Tobon and Thiago Cigarran have never played each other.

Miguel Tobon vs Thiago Cigarran — Prediction