ATP tennis predict — Miguel Tobon vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · QF 21:00

Predicted probability

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

36.91%

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

63.09%

Average Odds

3.54 / 1.26

Market probability

26.25% / 73.75%

Why This Prediction?

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1590 vs 1468), a higher Elo rating (1626 vs 1490) and more wins on hard courts (28 vs 19).

Player Comparison

1489.5 Elo 1626.1

1467.6 Elo (surface) 1590.4

57 Wins (Challenger) 58

19 Wins (surface) 28

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.704 Dominance ratio 0.936

- Rank 294

20.2 Age 21.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Miguel Tobon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

1st Serve In %

53.9%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.1%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Miguel Tobon 0 – 1 Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-27

QF

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #294

Miguel Tobon #-

6-2 6-4

4 Aces 10

0 Double Faults 0

68 Service Points 39

46 First Serve In 27

26 First Serve Won 26

12 Second Serve Won 10

9 Break Points Saved 0

12 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Clay Bogota CH · 2024-08-05

R32

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #418

Miguel Tobon #1457

7-5 7-6(3)

3 Aces 5

12 Double Faults 12

91 Service Points 98

55 First Serve In 45

40 First Serve Won 28

12 Second Serve Won 22

10 Break Points Saved 2

14 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Miguel Tobon vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez — Prediction