ATP tennis predict — Miguel Tobon vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · qualification - round of 16 18:30

Predicted probability

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

71.51%

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Brazil

28.49%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.61

Market probability

65.09% / 34.91%

Why This Prediction?

Miguel Tobon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1475 vs 1393), a stronger serve (68.1% vs 60.8% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (3 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1474.5 Elo 1392.7

1444.5 Elo (surface) 1422.5

55 Wins (Challenger) 26

17 Wins (surface) 3

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.913 Dominance ratio 1.088

- Rank 528

20.2 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Miguel Tobon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

1st Serve In %

53.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.37

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.1%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

64.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

55.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Miguel Tobon 0 – 0 Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-17

qualification - round of 16

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos #528

Miguel Tobon #-

7-6 6-2

1 Aces 0

7 Double Faults 3

75 Service Points 61

39 First Serve In 38

23 First Serve Won 26

16 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.4

Miguel Tobon vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos — Prediction