ATP tennis predict — Miguel Tobon vs Lorenzo Claverie

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · qualification - 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

55.01%

Lorenzo Claverie

Italy

44.99%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.52

Market probability

63.80% / 36.20%

Why This Prediction?

Miguel Tobon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1429 vs 1290), more wins on hard courts (16 vs 1) and a stronger return game (38.8% vs 30.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1455.6 Elo 1539.9

1429.3 Elo (surface) 1289.6

54 Wins (Challenger) 11

16 Wins (surface) 1

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.834 Dominance ratio 0.934

- Rank 862

20.2 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Miguel Tobon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Lorenzo Claverie

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Lorenzo Claverie

1st Serve In %

53.9%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

42.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

14.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.1%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

78.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

43.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.72

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Lorenzo Claverie

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

76.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

34.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Miguel Tobon 0 – 0 Lorenzo Claverie

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-16

qualification - 1. round

Miguel Tobon #-

Lorenzo Claverie #877

6-7 6-2 7-6

5 Aces 8

7 Double Faults 9

100 Service Points 110

55 First Serve In 65

45 First Serve Won 51

29 Second Serve Won 19

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.5

Miguel Tobon vs Lorenzo Claverie — Prediction