ATP tennis predict — Miguel Tobon vs Koray Kirci

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round 09:00

Predicted probability

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

86.13%

Koray Kirci

Turkey

13.87%

Average Odds

1.09 / 6.65

Market probability

85.92% / 14.08%

Why This Prediction?

Miguel Tobon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1480 vs 1347), a stronger serve (62.6% vs 54.9% of service points won) and more career match wins (57 vs 4).

Player Comparison

1480.0 Elo 1346.7

1451.7 Elo (surface) 1373.9

57 Wins (Challenger) 4

19 Wins (surface) 4

6 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.920 Dominance ratio 0.796

- Rank 1259

20.2 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Miguel Tobon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Koray Kirci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Koray Kirci

1st Serve In %

53.9%

72.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

60.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

15.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

10.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.1%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

62.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Koray Kirci

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

51.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

45.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Miguel Tobon 0 – 0 Koray Kirci

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Miguel Tobon #-

Koray Kirci #1259

6-3 6-3

2 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 1

64 Service Points 55

38 First Serve In 28

26 First Serve Won 16

16 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 6.7

Miguel Tobon vs Koray Kirci — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Miguel Tobon — Last 10

Koray Kirci — Last 10