ATP tennis predict — Miguel Tobon vs Edas Butvilas

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · R16 09:00

Predicted probability

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

28.81%

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

71.19%

Average Odds

3.54 / 1.27

Market probability

26.40% / 73.60%

Why This Prediction?

Edas Butvilas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1759 vs 1492), a higher Elo rating (1742 vs 1555) and more wins on hard courts (67 vs 20).

Player Comparison

1555.2 Elo 1742.1

1492.5 Elo (surface) 1759.1

58 Wins (Challenger) 88

20 Wins (surface) 67

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.961 Dominance ratio 0.881

- Rank 195

20.2 Age 22.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Miguel Tobon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Edas Butvilas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–6L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Edas Butvilas

1st Serve In %

53.9%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

74.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.1%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Tobon Edas Butvilas

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

46.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Miguel Tobon 0 – 0 Edas Butvilas

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Edas Butvilas #195

Miguel Tobon #-

7-6 6-1

1 Aces 3

6 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

27 First Serve Won 33

11 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Miguel Tobon vs Edas Butvilas — Prediction