ATP tennis predict — Miguel Damas vs Matej Dodig

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Miguel Damas

Spain

24.28%

Matej Dodig

Croatia

75.72%

Average Odds

3.71 / 1.25

Market probability

25.20% / 74.80%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1823 vs 1600), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1820 vs 1599) and a stronger serve (62.5% vs 49.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1599.6 Elo 1823.4

1599.3 Elo (surface) 1820.4

68 Wins (Challenger) 86

56 Wins (surface) 66

7 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.132 Dominance ratio 0.845

349 Rank 174

26.8 Age 21.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Miguel Damas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Damas Matej Dodig

1st Serve In %

67.5%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

53.9%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.6%

45.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

65.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.4%

72.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

43.8%

22.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

43.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Miguel Damas Matej Dodig

Break Points Saved %

46.9%

61.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.3%

55.3%

Break Points Converted %

50.5%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Miguel Damas and Matej Dodig have never played each other.

Miguel Damas vs Matej Dodig — Prediction