ATP tennis predict — Michele Ribecai vs Mathys Domenc

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · qualification - round of 16 10:00

Predicted probability

Michele Ribecai

Italy

90.33%

Mathys Domenc

France

9.67%

Average Odds

1.06 / 4.52

Market probability

81.00% / 19.00%

Why This Prediction?

Michele Ribecai is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1593 vs 1500), a higher Elo rating (1604 vs 1500) and more career match wins (28 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1604.2 Elo 1500

1592.7 Elo (surface) 1500

28 Wins (Challenger) 0

17 Wins (surface) 0

7 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.970 Dominance ratio 0.970

260 Rank 1175

23.6 Age 17.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michele Ribecai

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Mathys Domenc

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michele Ribecai Mathys Domenc

1st Serve In %

63.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.15

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michele Ribecai Mathys Domenc

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.0%

46.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

35.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michele Ribecai 0 – 0 Mathys Domenc

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-20

qualification - 1. round

Mathys Domenc #1175

Michele Ribecai #263

6-4 6-3

0 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

23 First Serve Won 28

13 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Michele Ribecai vs Mathys Domenc — Prediction