ATP tennis predict — Michele Ribecai vs Andrea Guerrieri

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · QF 12:00

Predicted probability

Michele Ribecai

Italy

37.69%

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

62.31%

Average Odds

2.35 / 1.55

Market probability

39.74% / 60.26%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Guerrieri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1662 vs 1501), a stronger return game (43.9% vs 30.7% of return points won) and more career match wins (52 vs 24).

Player Comparison

1500.6 Elo 1661.7

1586.1 Elo (surface) 1577.4

24 Wins (Challenger) 52

13 Wins (surface) 12

7 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.117 Dominance ratio 1.123

265 Rank 213

23.5 Age 27.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michele Ribecai

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michele Ribecai Andrea Guerrieri

1st Serve In %

63.8%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.4%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.3%

59.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.15

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.4%

54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.1%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michele Ribecai Andrea Guerrieri

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.0%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michele Ribecai 0 – 0 Andrea Guerrieri

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-07

QF

Andrea Guerrieri #213

Michele Ribecai #265

4-6 7-5 6-2

2 Aces 9

9 Double Faults 7

103 Service Points 92

57 First Serve In 54

40 First Serve Won 44

21 Second Serve Won 18

10 Break Points Saved 4

14 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Michele Ribecai vs Andrea Guerrieri — Prediction