ATP tennis predict — Michele Mecarelli vs Eero Vasa

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:05

Predicted probability

Michele Mecarelli

Italy

33.08%

Eero Vasa

Finland

66.92%

Average Odds

2.48 / 1.49

Market probability

37.53% / 62.47%

Why This Prediction?

Eero Vasa is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1495 vs 1395), a higher Elo rating (1474 vs 1440) and more wins on clay courts (17 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1439.7 Elo 1473.7

1394.7 Elo (surface) 1495.5

2 Wins (Challenger) 22

0 Wins (surface) 17

2 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.061 Dominance ratio 0.976

950 Rank 480

19.6 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michele Mecarelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Eero Vasa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michele Mecarelli Eero Vasa

1st Serve In %

—

63.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

61.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

41.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.0%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michele Mecarelli Eero Vasa

Break Points Saved %

—

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

—

34.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.4%

53.1%

Break Points Converted %

51.8%

39.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michele Mecarelli 0 – 0 Eero Vasa

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-09

qualification - 1. round

Michele Mecarelli #950

Eero Vasa #480

6-3 6-2

1 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 2

58 Service Points 40

35 First Serve In 24

25 First Serve Won 15

13 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Michele Mecarelli vs Eero Vasa — Prediction