ATP tennis predict — Michael Zhu vs Thiago Cigarran

Challenger Clay Sion challenger · qualification - 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Michael Zhu

USA

29.22%

Thiago Cigarran

Argentina

70.78%

Average Odds

3.43 / 1.26

Market probability

26.87% / 73.13%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Cigarran is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1391 vs 1341), more career match wins (14 vs 8) and more wins on clay courts (14 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1340.6 Elo 1391.5

1367.6 Elo (surface) 1406.8

8 Wins (Challenger) 14

2 Wins (surface) 14

4 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.742 Dominance ratio 1.090

860 Rank 687

34.0 Age 26.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Zhu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Thiago Cigarran

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zhu Thiago Cigarran

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.2%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.4%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zhu Thiago Cigarran

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

57.8%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Zhu 0 – 0 Thiago Cigarran

Clay Sion challenger · 2026-08-16

qualification - 1. round

Thiago Cigarran #694

Michael Zhu #875

4-6 7-5 6-2

2 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 1

82 Service Points 90

57 First Serve In 62

37 First Serve Won 43

13 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Michael Zhu vs Thiago Cigarran — Prediction