ATP tennis predict — Michael Zheng vs Yanki Erel

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · R16 06:55

Predicted probability

Michael Zheng

USA

84.69%

Yanki Erel

Turkey

15.31%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.26

Market probability

78.02% / 21.98%

Why This Prediction?

Michael Zheng is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1905 vs 1637), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1861 vs 1647) and a stronger return game (42.3% vs 33.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1905.3 Elo 1636.7

1861.4 Elo (surface) 1647.3

46 Wins (Challenger) 44

46 Wins (surface) 36

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.167 Dominance ratio 0.812

92 Rank 331

22.7 Age 26.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Zheng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Yanki Erel

1st Serve In %

55.4%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.2%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.9%

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.3%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

22.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Yanki Erel

Break Points Saved %

51.2%

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

31.5%

52.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.4%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.9%

27.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Zheng and Yanki Erel have never played each other.

Michael Zheng vs Yanki Erel — Prediction