ATP tennis predict — Michael Zheng vs Nicolas Mejia

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 2. round 07:55

Predicted probability

Michael Zheng

USA

79.19%

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

20.81%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.37

Market probability

78.60% / 21.40%

Why This Prediction?

Michael Zheng is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1839 vs 1645), a higher Elo rating (1883 vs 1777) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1883.0 Elo 1776.8

1838.8 Elo (surface) 1644.9

20 Wins 22

15 Wins (surface) 12

9 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.993 Dominance ratio 1.066

94 Rank 119

22.7 Age 26.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Zheng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Nicolas Mejia

1st Serve In %

54.2%

58.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

50.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.9%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.1%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.4%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Nicolas Mejia

Break Points Saved %

47.9%

67.7%

Break Points Converted %

31.5%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.1%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Zheng 1 – 0 Nicolas Mejia

Grass Wimbledon · 2026-07-01

2. round

Michael Zheng #144

Nicolas Mejia #165

6-7 7-6 6-1 6-4

5 Aces 20

2 Double Faults 3

133 Service Points 151

87 First Serve In 97

58 First Serve Won 77

26 Second Serve Won 27

4 Break Points Saved 12

8 Break Points Faced 12

44 Winners 58

26 Unforced Errors 31

1.2 Average Odds 4.5

Michael Zheng vs Nicolas Mejia — Prediction