ATP tennis predict — Michael Zheng vs Mitchell Krueger

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · QF 22:30

Predicted probability

Michael Zheng

USA

82.87%

Mitchell Krueger

USA

17.13%

Average Odds

1.08 / 7.00

Market probability

86.63% / 13.37%

Why This Prediction?

Michael Zheng is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1946 vs 1629), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1906 vs 1614) and a stronger return game (39.3% vs 32.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1946.3 Elo 1629.1

1906.2 Elo (surface) 1614.2

43 Wins (Challenger) 226

43 Wins (surface) 175

9 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.167 Dominance ratio 1.026

88 Rank 412

22.6 Age 32.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Zheng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Mitchell Krueger

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Mitchell Krueger

1st Serve In %

54.9%

66.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

40.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

69.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Mitchell Krueger

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

34.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.2%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.6%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Zheng 1 – 0 Mitchell Krueger

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-18

QF

Michael Zheng #88

Mitchell Krueger #412

7-6 6-2

6 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 5

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

31 First Serve Won 29

14 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 7

Hard Tiburon CH · 2025-09-29

QF

Michael Zheng #228

Mitchell Krueger #244

7-5 6-3

5 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

76 Service Points 86

46 First Serve In 63

30 First Serve Won 37

16 Second Serve Won 8

6 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Michael Zheng vs Mitchell Krueger — Prediction