ATP tennis predict — Michael Zheng vs Lorenzo Musetti

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 3. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Michael Zheng

USA

55.96%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

44.04%

Average Odds

2.49 / 1.54

Market probability

38.21% / 61.79%

Why This Prediction?

Michael Zheng is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (59.5% vs 55.2% of service points won), the advantage of playing in his home country and a stronger return game (37.9% vs 33.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1785.9 Elo 1839.6

1710.8 Elo (surface) 1670.6

17 Wins 212

12 Wins (surface) 104

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.937 Dominance ratio 0.744

110 Rank 15

22.6 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Zheng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

54.9%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.2%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.6%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Zheng 0 – 0 Lorenzo Musetti

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-18

3. round

Lorenzo Musetti #15

Michael Zheng #110

6-1 6-3

1 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 4

49 Service Points 46

23 First Serve In 24

16 First Serve Won 18

7 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 2

10 Break Points Faced 3

11 Winners 14

28 Unforced Errors 15

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Michael Zheng vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction