ATP tennis predict — Michael Zheng vs Kei Nishikori

ATP Hard Montreal · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Michael Zheng

USA

49.21%

Kei Nishikori

Japan

50.79%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.79

Market probability

66.43% / 33.57%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1719.2 Elo 1792.1

1620.0 Elo (surface) 1811.6

12 Wins 489

7 Wins (surface) 330

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.917 Dominance ratio 0.900

118 Rank 721

22.5 Age 36.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Zheng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Kei Nishikori

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Kei Nishikori

1st Serve In %

54.9%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

61.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Kei Nishikori

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.2%

48.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.6%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Zheng 0 – 1 Kei Nishikori

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-01

qualification - 1. round

Michael Zheng #118

Kei Nishikori #721

6-3 6-1

3 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 3

44 Service Points 47

20 First Serve In 19

17 First Serve Won 12

14 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Hard Palmas Del Mar CH · 2023-06-12

F

Kei Nishikori

Michael Zheng #1118

6-2 7-5

4 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 67

42 First Serve In 40

27 First Serve Won 23

9 Second Serve Won 8

5 Break Points Saved 10

8 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Michael Zheng vs Kei Nishikori — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Michael Zheng — Last 10

Kei Nishikori — Last 10