ATP tennis predict — Michael Zheng vs Evan Zhu

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · 1. round 01:15

Predicted probability

Michael Zheng

USA

87.77%

Evan Zhu

USA

12.23%

Average Odds

1.05 / 9.13

Market probability

89.69% / 10.31%

Why This Prediction?

Michael Zheng is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1942 vs 1563), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1901 vs 1574) and a stronger serve (60.4% vs 54.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1942.2 Elo 1562.7

1900.6 Elo (surface) 1574.2

42 Wins (Challenger) 74

42 Wins (surface) 61

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.167 Dominance ratio 1.041

88 Rank 522

22.6 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Zheng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Evan Zhu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Evan Zhu

1st Serve In %

54.9%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

60.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

37.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

58.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Evan Zhu

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

48.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.2%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.6%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Zheng 0 – 0 Evan Zhu

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-16

1. round

Michael Zheng #88

Evan Zhu #522

6-1 4-6 7-5

3 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 9

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

36 First Serve Won 48

22 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 11

7 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 9.1

Michael Zheng vs Evan Zhu — Prediction