ATP tennis predict — Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Michael Zheng

USA

41.12%

Arthur Gea

France

58.88%

Average Odds

1.63 / 2.28

Market probability

58.31% / 41.69%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Gea is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1808 vs 1732), fewer double faults per game (0.16 vs 0.18) and a better head-to-head record against Michael Zheng (2-0).

Player Comparison

1811.1 Elo 1799.9

1732.4 Elo (surface) 1808.5

19 Wins 21

14 Wins (surface) 17

11 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.965 Dominance ratio 0.988

107 Rank 87

22.6 Age 21.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Zheng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Arthur Gea

1st Serve In %

54.9%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Zheng Arthur Gea

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.2%

45.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.6%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Zheng 0 – 2 Arthur Gea

Hard US Open · 2026-09-05

3. round

Arthur Gea #87

Michael Zheng #107

7-6 3-6 4-6 6-3 6-2

7 Aces 6

6 Double Faults 8

174 Service Points 150

79 First Serve In 97

51 First Serve Won 71

48 Second Serve Won 24

17 Break Points Saved 4

24 Break Points Faced 10

32 Winners 51

49 Unforced Errors 57

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-30

R16

Arthur Gea #127

Michael Zheng #118

0-6 6-4 6-0

4 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 5

64 Service Points 80

38 First Serve In 36

26 First Serve Won 24

11 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 11

26 Winners 18

36 Unforced Errors 34

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Noumea CH · 2026-01-05

SF

Arthur Gea #241

Michael Zheng #182

4-6 6-1 6-4

1 Aces 0

6 Double Faults 1

88 Service Points 83

70 First Serve In 55

49 First Serve Won 35

6 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Michael Zheng — Last 10

Arthur Gea — Last 10