ATP tennis predict — Michael Vrbensky vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Michael Vrbensky

Czech Republic

30.35%

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

69.65%

Average Odds

5.96 / 1.11

Market probability

15.70% / 84.30%

Why This Prediction?

Nikoloz Basilashvili is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1658 vs 1432), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1650 vs 1441) and more wins on clay courts (74 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1431.9 Elo 1657.7

1440.9 Elo (surface) 1649.8

96 Wins (Challenger) 113

76 Wins (surface) 53

4 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.049 Dominance ratio 0.852

744 Rank 133

26.6 Age 34.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Vrbensky

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Vrbensky Nikoloz Basilashvili

1st Serve In %

57.0%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.2%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.6%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.0%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

51.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.53

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Vrbensky Nikoloz Basilashvili

Break Points Saved %

51.9%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

51.9%

40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Vrbensky 0 – 0 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Nikoloz Basilashvili #133

Michael Vrbensky #744

6-3 3-6 6-2

14 Aces 15

3 Double Faults 9

82 Service Points 85

39 First Serve In 38

34 First Serve Won 34

19 Second Serve Won 22

3 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 6.0

Michael Vrbensky vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Prediction