ATP tennis predict — Michael Vrbensky vs Kai Wehnelt

Challenger Clay Szczecin challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:00

Predicted probability

Michael Vrbensky

Czech Republic

36.85%

Kai Wehnelt

Germany

63.15%

Average Odds

2.60 / 1.44

Market probability

35.64% / 64.36%

Why This Prediction?

Kai Wehnelt is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1585 vs 1416), a higher Elo rating (1559 vs 1433) and fewer double faults per game (0.16 vs 0.18).

Player Comparison

1432.7 Elo 1559.2

1415.6 Elo (surface) 1585.2

96 Wins (Challenger) 32

76 Wins (surface) 22

3 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.105 Dominance ratio 0.906

714 Rank 573

26.7 Age 30.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Vrbensky

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Kai Wehnelt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Vrbensky Kai Wehnelt

1st Serve In %

57.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

61.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.24

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

62.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

73.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Vrbensky Kai Wehnelt

Break Points Saved %

51.9%

—

Break Points Converted %

51.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Vrbensky 0 – 1 Kai Wehnelt

Clay Szczecin challenger · 2026-09-14

qualification - round of 16

Kai Wehnelt #632

Michael Vrbensky #748

7-5 6-2

2 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

22 First Serve Won 32

6 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Clay Tulln CH · 2025-09-01

Q1

Kai Wehnelt #869

Michael Vrbensky #546

6-3 3-6 6-3

10 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 5

84 Service Points 108

50 First Serve In 61

34 First Serve Won 40

24 Second Serve Won 25

3 Break Points Saved 11

4 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Michael Vrbensky vs Kai Wehnelt — Prediction