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Michael Mmoh vs Daniel Rincon — Prediction

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · R16 15:00

Predicted probability

Michael Mmoh

USA

55.78%

Daniel Rincon

Spain

44.22%

Average Odds

1.78  /  1.95

Market probability

52.28%  /  47.72%

Why This Prediction?

Michael Mmoh is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1758 vs 1695), more wins on hard courts (188 vs 36) and a stronger return game (40.3% vs 38.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1752.3 Elo 1739.4
1758.4 Elo (surface) 1695.3
212 Wins (Challenger) 112
188 Wins (surface) 36
8 Last 15 form 7
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.016 Dominance ratio 1.016
151 Rank 245
28.8 Age 23.8
right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Mmoh

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Mmoh Daniel Rincon

1st Serve In %

65.5%
60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%
70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.0%
46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%
31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.1%
48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.65
0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41
0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.9%
—

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%
—

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%
—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%
—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%
—

Aces per Service Game

0.23
0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35
0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Mmoh Daniel Rincon

Break Points Saved %

69.6%
63.5%

Break Points Converted %

34.3%
33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.3%
66.2%

Break Points Converted %

50.9%
40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Mmoh and Daniel Rincon have never played each other.

Michael Mmoh — Last 10

W L L W W W W L L L

Daniel Rincon — Last 10

W L W L W W L L W L