← Back to Predictions

Michael Geerts vs Vladyslav Orlov — Prediction

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · qualification - 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Michael Geerts

Belgium

68.63%

Vladyslav Orlov

Ukraine

31.37%

Average Odds

1.37  /  2.90

Market probability

67.92%  /  32.08%

Why This Prediction?

Michael Geerts is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1568 vs 1351), a higher Elo rating (1551 vs 1442) and fewer double faults per game (0.12 vs 0.15).

Player Comparison

1551.3 Elo 1441.6
1568.2 Elo (surface) 1351.1
152 Wins (Challenger) 51
100 Wins (surface) 17
5 Last 15 form 7
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.898 Dominance ratio 1.233
343 Rank 502
31.7 Age 31.4
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Geerts

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Vladyslav Orlov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Geerts Vladyslav Orlov

1st Serve In %

54.3%
59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%
61.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.8%
53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.2%
15.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%
43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.31
0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24
0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%
53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%
68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%
51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%
37.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%
58.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.47
0.09

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26
0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Geerts Vladyslav Orlov

Break Points Saved %

61.9%
52.2%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%
50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.3%
58.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%
52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Geerts and Vladyslav Orlov have never played each other.

Michael Geerts — Last 10

L L L W W L L L L W

Vladyslav Orlov — Last 10

L W L L W W L W W L